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The republished market is almost identical to nfelo and is not an independent vote.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1342ac0bdc56e1d971e441b2df46ce42834bab1a3de07725aebab6183ad31d5a","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.484375,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"3325d3d5dd6f1f01f171101a56fbc728591ee00a2e0ffe249b47182dcc8d3cf1","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.447554,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7bb506cdfb5d14cb5afd7da48b9243b1403f906d85a368fcf4da33ad51e7d807","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.447837,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5379102f95116ee1aac428ed64f5a32ec602208f557f926080e17bfd7743f0f6","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.4113,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:24.836Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"81213729cc1bc463a72a97efc33caea90863d226e0e4d1efefcd3db801dca8fb","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.42,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives Indianapolis 41.13%, versus Classic 48.44% and the republished market 36.89%. I retain 42% despite changed inputs: the current model remains the anchor, with opposing signals warranting caution rather than a stronger underdog call.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c54ae1fb347f0d3dacae94ecaae7c3677c18584b7664dbb388b714c66ec6221e","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.593752,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5fe7a4fbfb051fafed3a8c45ffb06f6d92c9f4531bd2a567119acd53c538da5e","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.523497,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7c6dc185be15fa50b59c130e280750375d85b67e7736327aaa6571c190634d8d","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.523026,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ecefba7ae0b5e63acd79f10ea4d0a11554fcec8b0d0c47ba1ba0c31ae09713bd","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.4523,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-09T21:45:53.560Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"c655c943e55e41be92bfbd9b9e448e71c2817cfa76fe47c07879be1cdce2aa09","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.47,"input_snapshot_id":"2c53752b299084ffc0cde200ca130c6dbbb0c1fb688042de88cbb50adcf5f681","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"nfelo and market are about 44.3% for Houston, while Classic gives 59.38%. 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I lower P(home) from 42% to 40%, allowing a small pull toward the less pessimistic rating without treating dependent inputs as separate evidence.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c6c081abbfe6897b61b7eb80e3fddce7b3545c1f060fa4fa96add053d4c4f7a0","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.769761,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"96b28132a9c51ca58057c21588f4a6338045ecd4c8b441b7996d4007bb03f96f","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.778243,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f30a0da50a23b35c4ec60fd101ba004c74e9e062964c37f77792f09a873c480d","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.778131,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"9fd27fc580485f48e7e20d1467066917e766192f3748bedf0039a5f6949ff8e4","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.7865,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:25.973Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"002a186fcea29fe0c94eae6f8332bb27b48710132036d28bc794dc5897433c79","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.77,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 78.65% for Jacksonville and Classic is 76.98%. 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A small downward adjustment to 62% captures that uncertainty.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:26.139Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d3c80b27cbdbfdcc40895ae979eb858cae2d9f3195f50238d78c834792652505","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.759907,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:26.139Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:26.139Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"81101f926135495173dd678bfe0cf519799e7b4f2a245f2b15c56ea9aa8c4a51","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.780077,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:26.139Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"217ff7b11f4ead14743f9fc9e2749b149739a54ae5de881ac4dd4d2ee09c635d","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.779454,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:26.139Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"6e91138e686218c1022dc34ca0825e69a5889b404e2d7389a69687d73da13f0d","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.799,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","source_commit":"625be180a3bdeb0f050d50454d20d52d2ddd1f3d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:26.535Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"e814b42176e4e3349b908fe40e82d380b8a67e5961f261f4f4378ff8683bb833","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.79,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives the Chargers 81.11%, versus Classic 75.99%. I raise P(home) from 77% to 79%, below the more confident current feed. No independent injury or news adjustment is claimed.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:28.406Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d73fd9930bc3fa693a56c25472fd4d452c7be09e2630d90feb03df698118fb13","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.623835,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:28.406Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:28.406Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b2f81e99e172fbf7ee8dde7ff77085f1bf6afb0d949d796f8ac58606f8f80eec","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.590984,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:28.406Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"62088a66b1942c0e47fe08c42fc1c168721669c194ce157f6a0e9481b8bd0c2c","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.590567,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:28.406Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"64219732d45be8a53be3d0631f1c2780c0619eb24dc3806adcfb52169264809a","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.5573,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","source_commit":"625be180a3bdeb0f050d50454d20d52d2ddd1f3d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:27.100Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"3b1d1e6d7aa26a5b05563af2777a59403d6f9208d1d7d8fa6a832a8ca12db8d0","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.58,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo is now 55.73% for Minnesota, while Classic remains 62.38%. I reduce P(home) from 59% to 58%, leaning toward current nfelo but acknowledging the rating disagreement. The republished market equals nfelo, not an additional independent signal.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:30.620Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"4d183def24a2635d1b973aeb7a182481fc428ca54c015653ae633b8423356059","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.435019,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:30.620Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:30.620Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"62a37e7a4cbafea4fd7ba5165b95df3aa1ea9c944b0e08924ff8712b84ba73d9","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.524797,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:30.620Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"026d324c8654e0a9f64e6e07030f33f4c82a36d08d195523006db647785dcff9","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.52401,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:30.620Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"a2b8f289ee6f5331a39eefb31f21cba70e6a791fe3f4a0892bdb4f825e73011f","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.613,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","source_commit":"625be180a3bdeb0f050d50454d20d52d2ddd1f3d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:27.676Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"340f63b78a4b7f2969d7c87df4af737669135e3f3aee6f1678dee6ba719e497e","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.57,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Upstream OAK is normalized to canonical LV. Published nfelo gives Las Vegas 61.30%, down from 62.44%; Classic gives only 43.50%. I reduce P(home) from 58% to 57%, retaining the current-feed favorite while moderating this substantial directional disagreement.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:32.822Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"a65b940087cca0545342e994bf0e820a9ecb45062fc035f092546bdc6ec54e2d","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.71495,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:32.822Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:32.822Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"a84185318eb21bb0a68d045b9d9b217b8345e57dede5ce59f7d2b17ae78e8ede","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.715025,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:32.822Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"44ee916e57b63c2c37b8200691f6775b68ac722cd22e20433d0c0aaf522be104","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.715025,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-13T20:15:32.822Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"6b95e917fb8db9ac7eccd861ad6d60e61a9cf94ded1ba90e640c1e9ce4314887","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.7151,"input_snapshot_id":"9e0bb02f85aafef75262c8237f0a52d99ce7d9c38ed17c78a5efe7009b6dbc98","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","source_commit":"625be180a3bdeb0f050d50454d20d52d2ddd1f3d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:28.240Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"950e8b63e7771bd2081c97c8e9da6f4845b25989d20fd01db026589362973567","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.7,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 69.92% for Philadelphia; Classic is 71.50%. I raise P(home) from 65% to 70%, close to current nfelo. Agreement with its identical republished market does not establish independent evidence or an edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-14T00:00:24.357Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"977e30f66f986f1a514829ecb7b3153ebfde32b2179140711d18d8edc562feb1","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.543708,"input_snapshot_id":"10fc73167afad12c1c19d2b95c6948cc5194c5a7f1bf011d4ff8c061a0f726d7","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T00:00:24.357Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-14T00:00:24.357Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"6d7595d652cd4adc8dbe417e1d4271837f0b8655fbc90d8855fe56d474efca9d","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.464477,"input_snapshot_id":"10fc73167afad12c1c19d2b95c6948cc5194c5a7f1bf011d4ff8c061a0f726d7","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-14T00:00:24.357Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"8c326061b471b7469155c2b23ba0071fc5990ea4433dcd41f3fd9e3fe6bc19c7","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.465354,"input_snapshot_id":"10fc73167afad12c1c19d2b95c6948cc5194c5a7f1bf011d4ff8c061a0f726d7","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-14T00:00:24.357Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"a21d27fc8c6432e4e6de6a902069be673e2dcbdb16c863292a37bc2929a570e8","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.387,"input_snapshot_id":"10fc73167afad12c1c19d2b95c6948cc5194c5a7f1bf011d4ff8c061a0f726d7","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T17:38:15.330Z","source_commit":"625be180a3bdeb0f050d50454d20d52d2ddd1f3d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:28.815Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"23c659aa5af032e214a8e5f03d26aab799ec787c4941945c307489d9707253b3","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.42,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives the Giants 38.70%, versus Classic 54.37%. I lower P(home) from 46% to 42%, following the changed current feed while retaining a substantial uncertainty allowance for the opposite Classic favorite.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-14T19:55:17.614Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f9bdf0ed5946cb47e3f3e18be0e9c7ea28e70b84b39c8c916a566743f9de1b50","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.426854,"input_snapshot_id":"4049e3cf004b29cac1c292b2daecb911f66546a4e5332bab23489756f5e87e8b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T19:55:17.614Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-14T19:55:17.614Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d7c855800627bd889738deb3c48d242fd56fe60c449c5a535040fb039147fdb9","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.51109,"input_snapshot_id":"4049e3cf004b29cac1c292b2daecb911f66546a4e5332bab23489756f5e87e8b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T19:53:27.309Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-14T19:55:17.614Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"59605b56a9c36e3bd40938aafbae277dda857fa555e5a538f8f847aad8876f2c","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.510777,"input_snapshot_id":"4049e3cf004b29cac1c292b2daecb911f66546a4e5332bab23489756f5e87e8b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T19:53:27.309Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-14T19:55:17.614Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"311ce9ac164bce628556cdaaacd77c535714a86ddaa4cd29838bffa5cf03e091","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.5947,"input_snapshot_id":"4049e3cf004b29cac1c292b2daecb911f66546a4e5332bab23489756f5e87e8b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T19:53:27.309Z","source_commit":"dfc6bf8cbfb4c3e1a10a26fd6589fc5d8491872d","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:29.390Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"f44b42b77ea4099805f902ab9ad16d0cd1de99ccd612f71bd14ee5d7607e961c","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.55,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 59.47% for Kansas City, while Classic remains 42.69%. I raise P(home) from 52% to 55%; this stays between the conflicting views and nearer current nfelo without asserting a cause for their disagreement.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-17T18:35:51.887Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"354031e65c73f0162a69d341ce2c3233ce14be088b5fa6d29d46eab73874d9c1","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.684143,"input_snapshot_id":"3b8182e8a7d4dfc59f9d077774d73cbe423703114a20f55c3f1056cf4a5ff4b5","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T18:35:51.887Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-17T18:35:51.887Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"34e5304300b948d0400553b2b5160f20ee984bc22391fdd6d3142719bed2c211","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.691722,"input_snapshot_id":"3b8182e8a7d4dfc59f9d077774d73cbe423703114a20f55c3f1056cf4a5ff4b5","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T18:31:32.193Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-17T18:35:51.887Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0cfdf2e19d6ae53fbf65c1756b30e7d438684636270cb61a220812ce96e9b7eb","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.691671,"input_snapshot_id":"3b8182e8a7d4dfc59f9d077774d73cbe423703114a20f55c3f1056cf4a5ff4b5","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T18:31:32.193Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-17T18:35:51.887Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"35b42304997d31130c942d4a187087177e56bb522659269883486c04a36236d2","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.6992,"input_snapshot_id":"3b8182e8a7d4dfc59f9d077774d73cbe423703114a20f55c3f1056cf4a5ff4b5","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T18:31:32.193Z","source_commit":"66d379a84ec2fc642fb45b5f77efe355699d8e13","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:33.243Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"9def23d679ef4a6187d53d59f06f2c390e492308ba42e775da79e0e98ca9f806","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.67,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market probability both give BUF 66.60%; current live Classic Elo gives 68.41%. I raise P(home) from 61% to 67%, staying close to the now-available current game forecast rather than the earlier fixed-strength season projection. These inputs are correlated and do not establish an independent edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:50.948Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"3007fd084e58753e98a0a793047e7a3662b8bf8bafdee12238e361a96d6fb0a6","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.667087,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:50.948Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:50.948Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c7b878088881cb76ec017142c98fc0ffeaf357eff0d1619feff60fa28da665bc","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.548532,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:50.948Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"89bd4f402c18dfaea0999ca6aac5d14f541c6679bf2a6bc8ec7ea4f1227b24d3","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.545644,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:50.948Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0950c4b0905639fd233809f70baf294d4da0491119a1a2184c0a98514545eb06","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.4242,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:33.917Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"d06eeeae3a00304895bba90dbaec22286fff95e27829eaa651d0b08a63ac5ebf","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.47,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo gives ATL 42.42% and its republished market 40.53%, while current live Classic Elo gives 66.71%. I lower P(home) from 58% to 47%, heavily weighting the current nfelo and market direction while retaining modest uncertainty for the large Classic disagreement. I do not treat the inputs as independent votes.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:54.416Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"3a3d053229cc42c6d5026e9b46ab565cf5d777de0b13311ad77db30f9c28d1f5","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.709316,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:54.416Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:54.416Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0c0d56573c0986456320071446bf3da952be8bce2eea72ce4d8dd4aa10bcad3d","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.654244,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:54.416Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e9b88b69f8ccf8530d18fffc4714eee238e952e38f50c47904bc745b4ebed943","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.652008,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:54.416Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b670fad90748c974ec45de54d303d0d39c4324f555c0eaaca0391710027fb790","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.5947,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-13T16:45:25.407Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"7dfaad25b817ba3835bcf5d4cb963d3c78a870ee95dca51ba9ebfd36afb2fda0","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.63,"input_snapshot_id":"a4ab8c63adb75747abac3c26a11af54cffae5ee05a6d9d6df66b169226087d20","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give HOU 57.44% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 75.16%. I choose 63%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T16:41:03.234Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:57.718Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"59bdbf3c72d5fa9f5f93baaf2e430c944448c4e575d444c4b8909e49b0cb3466","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.66516,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:57.718Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:57.718Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"8c8c7376a0f3fb80a11cb6740b605146e2709536c4299a761bf25e3039a5de02","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.730107,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:57.718Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1f9f7a5339a905b7c24bf259651260a757bd42a47e1a2bd2e175c8f4d521a565","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.72583,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:45:57.718Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"28a201975a5cebd2e3c6ca04af3fdea315dff7f7f30531fa4e53c1b034311804","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.7865,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:50.542Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"d2a49d79a4a6ab8f7a3766c37234d5aaab6b134dc631b4106f329b315422dac2","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.73,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market probability now give TB 75.96%, down from 78.65%; current live Classic Elo gives 66.52%. I lower P(home) from 75% to 73%, leaning toward the refreshed nfelo input while retaining uncertainty for the Classic disagreement. These inputs are correlated and do not establish an independent edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:00.934Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7221a5ca07f6ca0c9ad1a17f59adb8dc609a0f03aa1fab0b005bd9f06d849ddb","game_id":"2026_02_GB_NYJ","home_team":"NYJ","home_win_probability":0.43234,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:00.934Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:00.934Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0d3c0dd1a02b75457815391b48d51925c43efe5d50fd8e94e28a8c61b48d20ff","game_id":"2026_02_GB_NYJ","home_team":"NYJ","home_win_probability":0.412683,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:00.934Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f47def84f67f43057185f88946a1508f3d90b62370016d81a838879c4cd824c7","game_id":"2026_02_GB_NYJ","home_team":"NYJ","home_win_probability":0.41282,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:00.934Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f5bccea37748eb3ab44079b16afd21e8680ceb4c57db54fb67bb84fed5f67269","game_id":"2026_02_GB_NYJ","home_team":"NYJ","home_win_probability":0.3933,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:35.276Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"9d38d5b61fa09fb498fe06d86b3eaf9e33388a2d133342e1c23aa9a52f3f5c22","game_id":"2026_02_GB_NYJ","home_team":"NYJ","home_win_probability":0.4,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo gives NYJ 39.33%, its republished market 36.89%, and current live Classic Elo 43.23%. I raise P(home) from 37% to 40%, near the center of those public inputs with no independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:04.434Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"3a531f82ea8d13e987c7dc719832bc39283789c1de463469e1d03484ed148721","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.573397,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:04.434Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:04.434Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"cd796b4658da3ad6b0357978f3226378a997603bd6e4f3d74512456a882ad589","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.620798,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:04.434Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"fb80610fd9e75cd0d891c626eb1330715853439ed2b078701636d7d7b33d3200","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.619698,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:04.434Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"4f43ee084c7c7390145ee83a291992280ac924361b95b2ce233d81db9359dc99","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.666,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-17T16:25:51.045Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"d061a3bdae7c17e101cbaf5f8b49466e16d0192f30a58b5cc6e4d84e7c666a5c","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.66,"input_snapshot_id":"f4881c71911cca9df35cd0d827577bc212c4600e2b6e9fe3d6d0b5176ae50c4d","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market probability now give CHI 69.92%, up from nfelo's prior 65.03%; current live Classic Elo gives 57.34%. I raise P(home) from 64% to 66%, leaning toward the refreshed nfelo input while retaining uncertainty for the Classic disagreement. These inputs are correlated and do not establish an independent edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T16:22:36.020Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:07.633Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b9a0d49a951055e9448e1f249d5296ee13f74b35c039b48dc0017d0ad3ecc4f1","game_id":"2026_02_NO_BAL","home_team":"BAL","home_win_probability":0.762348,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:07.633Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:07.633Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e8488cc1468e0ae1a29e8b7d4b1e9ec94260d100a075265e80d4c7c7a795519e","game_id":"2026_02_NO_BAL","home_team":"BAL","home_win_probability":0.774653,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:07.633Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5f00f1da3bfe0c7ea40d3d2ab42c164ecfb0043bcab8f8e14f56b39ffd3788cf","game_id":"2026_02_NO_BAL","home_team":"BAL","home_win_probability":0.774424,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:07.633Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d20995867d710d452906537bd118a12d225ce864d5f2cfea7a732e776e0f50a0","game_id":"2026_02_NO_BAL","home_team":"BAL","home_win_probability":0.7865,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-13T16:45:27.674Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"b4e3e9ee31d67aa6539acaa140fe448e9d3cfe90d69a053effd319405b939d93","game_id":"2026_02_NO_BAL","home_team":"BAL","home_win_probability":0.78,"input_snapshot_id":"a4ab8c63adb75747abac3c26a11af54cffae5ee05a6d9d6df66b169226087d20","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give BAL 80.83% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 72.77%. I choose 78%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T16:41:03.234Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:10.805Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e2dd76948384ee0aead1f666b92095b9bc2360860e80632d41c66319ee104736","game_id":"2026_02_PHI_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.27016,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:10.805Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:10.805Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ca4325b9242abbc85bf63d203d788e45ecbfff1b96db7ab6f811ac0e41e64272","game_id":"2026_02_PHI_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.262357,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:10.805Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7b3a3bd1e1c95ddcd425a5480f0a89a0d66e08193d69d248a488c241cf81cbb6","game_id":"2026_02_PHI_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.26243,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:10.805Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e96263f697b1d4f70baae834d5ea91c004816c50ee524951d76867f82f5fa6b3","game_id":"2026_02_PHI_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.2547,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:36.645Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"c98ff9038988ca2f425078dbdcf3090f161d8dcc40367b82ad4c56870167e361","game_id":"2026_02_PHI_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.26,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market both give TEN 25.47%; current live Classic Elo gives 27.02%. I lower P(home) from 31% to 26%, close to the newly available current game inputs. No independent injury or news adjustment is claimed.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:14.022Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"66aeaf1e57605eafc800ec5543f06a4b099398b71027a799f5421e3d24d05f07","game_id":"2026_02_PIT_NE","home_team":"NE","home_win_probability":0.678197,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:14.022Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:14.022Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d545d7bbd3959ad2ee8bd88259327dbf264cda6ae0719ef4323baa952c710f68","game_id":"2026_02_PIT_NE","home_team":"NE","home_win_probability":0.680503,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:14.022Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"37819f515ba9a59a0fb62c0e65234f8ec6266832f8a4c634b0540c5289952148","game_id":"2026_02_PIT_NE","home_team":"NE","home_win_probability":0.680499,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:46:14.022Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c05f7502d53863365e509ff1d01cfdb7833079d2129f5a7f2c5959cc12f94c40","game_id":"2026_02_PIT_NE","home_team":"NE","home_win_probability":0.6828,"input_snapshot_id":"16ec0c74b8cf828fc277cecf5fa8566c3778cf996c55e53da2cb314ca42f4079","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:43:16.424Z","source_commit":"6e907a5c95df7f6a877e07e8b75b86bbdc8cfe89","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-09-13T16:45:28.821Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"c71111fbc5e358853afe88185c308ad4895cde630a89027b08cdf3aa5844e293","game_id":"2026_02_PIT_NE","home_team":"NE","home_win_probability":0.69,"input_snapshot_id":"a4ab8c63adb75747abac3c26a11af54cffae5ee05a6d9d6df66b169226087d20","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give NE 68.89% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 69.58%. I choose 69%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-13T16:41:03.234Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"JAX","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.524Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1aa01bc21c45b0f9b8b879177c4bac0756758334d7540668af8e7d06eba92b22","game_id":"2026_02_JAX_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.573884,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.524Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"JAX","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.524Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"776c37d88013925b825cb1e4889ea03ea5df5bd6bc8e9448f559acfed0a6e89e","game_id":"2026_02_JAX_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.584329,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"JAX","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.524Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e3c49d38d6d25d55582edc72018f0cf4a88fe56a61605f50069577f2b7b3c381","game_id":"2026_02_JAX_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.584292,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"JAX","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:52.524Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"724f80af53abb3fb4e98a15dead69db66239e747fd706faabe44fee490ffceca","game_id":"2026_02_JAX_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.5947,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","source_commit":"bdae19ce30480e6e418ca5dbb9e21b51e71f1148","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"JAX","captured_at":"2026-09-15T16:35:16.883Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"a4d03f0cf30e648cbc77fac74324e5088d1df568b23fd146b2bd6c143ce2c2cb","game_id":"2026_02_JAX_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.6,"input_snapshot_id":"40e439f389a7909e402b60452d3e3d61b28a9d1f1b5756232208180257a6cda4","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 2 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give DEN 61.51%; current live Classic Elo fell to 57.39% after Week 1 completed. I lower P(home) from 62% to 60%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-15T16:31:59.841Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:55.680Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ce10c2d1275788b4afb63ae23d9bfd96ff1dd0c3096328d9ab6b7f5bbf7857b7","game_id":"2026_02_LV_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.727101,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:55.680Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:55.680Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1d5727755e367aa8543b3d82cfa89de0fea19b6ffec0f2884255537a367f405f","game_id":"2026_02_LV_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.713451,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:55.680Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"8a8ffd745a62ffd2b17c6615a555615af872d595520b5bd04167f41c33cf7f2f","game_id":"2026_02_LV_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.713251,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-20T19:45:55.680Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c6d06bea52e494c57d3530f3528e6be1ad8689a3a7a028535236dca220903fef","game_id":"2026_02_LV_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.6994,"input_snapshot_id":"63634f8488bb259c78a115765e3dc7350cc000d485b3835601a3c53635003898","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","source_commit":"bdae19ce30480e6e418ca5dbb9e21b51e71f1148","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-14T17:00:11.593Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"488d8eec8a3869a9cd1a916af399a2f30ba19a0db1ef11b27501c5b3aaed9b6c","game_id":"2026_02_LV_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.72,"input_snapshot_id":"58b8d7d0732474c53d38a64cbe3354efbd6f0943a9c8b20e40927b784bec6dcd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:05:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give LAC 71.32%; current live Classic Elo has fallen to 72.71% after Week 1 results. I lower P(home) from 74% to 72%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-14T16:56:45.831Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:50.714Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"de2ccf18fb2c5bd55f23bf1ee2f103be41d37aac6bd8691dd6a1e4bdd57baf29","game_id":"2026_02_MIA_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.793023,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:50.714Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:50.714Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ce21a405805240641ab65f070262c2baf3749e95385320fdfee8a96c08dba3ae","game_id":"2026_02_MIA_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.832307,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:50.714Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7bbad5908d27ff3e04df5f1842d10a3f2dbad3fd74bfb70a812eb5e478925435","game_id":"2026_02_MIA_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.829211,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:50.714Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5c46b0a34f31c58bc5594cb45ce4da221695e4b257e65904a88483654eab2c4f","game_id":"2026_02_MIA_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.8654,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","source_commit":"bdae19ce30480e6e418ca5dbb9e21b51e71f1148","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:37.303Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"84f1328699d45629273ad01bb01767d64bf0c46d9a3a4a85be0877b7554a0652","game_id":"2026_02_MIA_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.84,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo gives SF 86.54%, its republished market 88.80%, and current live Classic Elo 79.30%. I raise P(home) from 80% to 84%, leaning toward current nfelo while staying below its full confidence. The agreement is not treated as independent evidence.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:53.897Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"983acddca2ba8c725b113992965ea19445019803a8c20079889b40f6b59459f2","game_id":"2026_02_SEA_ARI","home_team":"ARI","home_win_probability":0.260742,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:53.897Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:53.897Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7f3245ad1ab2ed152128fbec996e0b84cb2f92393917ab6dfab990904991dce9","game_id":"2026_02_SEA_ARI","home_team":"ARI","home_win_probability":0.278749,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:53.897Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"59ffbdff8b5b9784613606b9f69281779468ab7ec779a11c8ba3a5e0d0322b58","game_id":"2026_02_SEA_ARI","home_team":"ARI","home_win_probability":0.279121,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:53.897Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b2c819c82f0397b9ea84c51cb23b9078f9f1363213708f60fd992c2275987d85","game_id":"2026_02_SEA_ARI","home_team":"ARI","home_win_probability":0.2975,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","source_commit":"bdae19ce30480e6e418ca5dbb9e21b51e71f1148","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:37.974Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"822b6062f16f442156d1dc0ccf28778a59a7b366bc18a38c38e3c272b8c9b8d5","game_id":"2026_02_SEA_ARI","home_team":"ARI","home_win_probability":0.29,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo gives ARI 28.38%, its republished market 33.40%, and current live Classic Elo 26.07%. I raise P(home) from 22% to 29%, centered near nfelo while acknowledging the public range. This is not an independent model or news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:57.057Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"aa4507a9771299dfa3c1519bd64f999ac645758ea338df6d2ee56a676ce3dec2","game_id":"2026_02_WAS_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.568161,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:57.057Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:57.057Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"2652dd6818f6c031dfc5bc7d75180484deef956bc5f60b1cc80d5da30d45d390","game_id":"2026_02_WAS_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.609174,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:57.057Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1f4dfb57270d017dd015101b63a32799dc7c625f02b79d6a701d5ea9cdb01a50","game_id":"2026_02_WAS_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.60843,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-20T20:20:57.057Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"62ba40adbda80f53c1e9a52be5433e7b5357fe2f895f4038573ae86dd966e22b","game_id":"2026_02_WAS_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.6487,"input_snapshot_id":"7da0eb1a45c349d528e9b31064c59e537b50672169c8345b2fb6c301c67c2b7b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T19:41:26.411Z","source_commit":"bdae19ce30480e6e418ca5dbb9e21b51e71f1148","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-18T16:10:54.603Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"d0b04c6e370973642c7c91ac870118491afd9dea7de942f129c65bd137ae361c","game_id":"2026_02_WAS_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.63,"input_snapshot_id":"250ace598900214b26cc4314c85600aa5e101290574e6c96378d536e46d61b01","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market probability now give DAL 66.60%, up from the 63.11% basis of the prior receipt; current live Classic Elo gives 56.82%. I raise P(home) from 61% to 63%, leaning toward the refreshed nfelo input while retaining uncertainty for the Classic disagreement. These inputs are correlated and do not establish an independent edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-18T16:08:08.496Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-09-20T23:45:51.937Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5689b96eca19ff7ae8058bbd7a5cdc07df46648b7dbd1662097607578efae726","game_id":"2026_02_IND_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.704159,"input_snapshot_id":"f9a4cf9e5f5a4945dd7120af9282a515f90d59a78d583124e7885bcc12ac82ad","kickoff_at":"2026-09-21T00:20:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T23:45:51.937Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-09-20T23:45:51.937Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f78a72abb62ff6da72785b79995d4a56d983dac5baf990e0a5efa6ce2f7a3187","game_id":"2026_02_IND_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.70966,"input_snapshot_id":"f9a4cf9e5f5a4945dd7120af9282a515f90d59a78d583124e7885bcc12ac82ad","kickoff_at":"2026-09-21T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T22:43:49.635Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-09-20T23:45:51.937Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"22830a34619272745dffa29776e20fffc76376f1f2a52e877ec7fa1e6a26525a","game_id":"2026_02_IND_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.709629,"input_snapshot_id":"f9a4cf9e5f5a4945dd7120af9282a515f90d59a78d583124e7885bcc12ac82ad","kickoff_at":"2026-09-21T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T22:43:49.635Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-09-20T23:45:51.937Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e91356c0de6986687c990e169eb84e664aa63ff18bce4054b6a4d8b6093d32e4","game_id":"2026_02_IND_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.7151,"input_snapshot_id":"f9a4cf9e5f5a4945dd7120af9282a515f90d59a78d583124e7885bcc12ac82ad","kickoff_at":"2026-09-21T00:20:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T22:43:49.635Z","source_commit":"600ef6c253881f3dc61712cc7e351597b6b14e3c","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-09-15T16:35:17.429Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"40df1b25493bc576b11dbbf52409d7a9f83571252d544860cfb892ffa0df2c39","game_id":"2026_02_IND_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.71,"input_snapshot_id":"40e439f389a7909e402b60452d3e3d61b28a9d1f1b5756232208180257a6cda4","kickoff_at":"2026-09-21T00:20:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 2 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give KC 71.04%; current live Classic Elo rose to 70.42% after Week 1 completed. I raise P(home) from 68% to 71%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-15T16:31:59.841Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYG","captured_at":"2026-09-21T19:45:51.908Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ff306ea00e40c04d3ede56911d4d9bfc964cea56e92e4ce0d9b0397e521fca7f","game_id":"2026_02_NYG_LAR","home_team":"LAR","home_win_probability":0.754794,"input_snapshot_id":"c0037c2b0113211e877cc6965d3d69b89560627eede93c2a9e25b2d362649b91","kickoff_at":"2026-09-22T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-21T19:45:51.908Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYG","captured_at":"2026-09-21T19:45:51.908Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"1d1eca31b3b2361bdb01128589a5abed7f6dc4ebe8c51e14166c08d6cdd2dee2","game_id":"2026_02_NYG_LAR","home_team":"LAR","home_win_probability":0.742834,"input_snapshot_id":"c0037c2b0113211e877cc6965d3d69b89560627eede93c2a9e25b2d362649b91","kickoff_at":"2026-09-22T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-21T19:43:31.237Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYG","captured_at":"2026-09-21T19:45:51.908Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"be275cb9e3154fba8b1102a985818993ae09ca55e09fe97392b5c40495f1da68","game_id":"2026_02_NYG_LAR","home_team":"LAR","home_win_probability":0.742647,"input_snapshot_id":"c0037c2b0113211e877cc6965d3d69b89560627eede93c2a9e25b2d362649b91","kickoff_at":"2026-09-22T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-21T19:43:31.237Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYG","captured_at":"2026-09-21T19:45:51.908Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"62eaaa5713339e6fc31da1b09fdae55d77ea3a49155f53606cc6210b141f286d","game_id":"2026_02_NYG_LAR","home_team":"LAR","home_win_probability":0.7305,"input_snapshot_id":"c0037c2b0113211e877cc6965d3d69b89560627eede93c2a9e25b2d362649b91","kickoff_at":"2026-09-22T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-21T19:43:31.237Z","source_commit":"8b53cc28ee6aa185fa6aadf791f209e2f6a153d5","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYG","captured_at":"2026-09-16T16:20:39.325Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"c213bef2c559245dfabdcdb6f2e2b0605c42d6deb2082e78b191de8cf0d3e494","game_id":"2026_02_NYG_LAR","home_team":"LAR","home_win_probability":0.76,"input_snapshot_id":"f5b77449183929c35505a4d18c3c56262994cb751ef9b1fe5c35e6e4a9cc33fd","kickoff_at":"2026-09-22T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"Published Week 2 nfelo and its republished market both give LAR 75.96%; current live Classic Elo gives 75.48%. I lower P(home) from 80% to 76%, replacing the earlier fixed-strength projection with the closely aligned current game inputs. No independent news adjustment is claimed.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-16T16:17:23.885Z","week":2,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-24T18:40:51.871Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d3777efb3ecff33106592e2bd0ca4d24b462343dde5ffa216e2801b777244377","game_id":"2026_03_ATL_GB","home_team":"GB","home_win_probability":0.730224,"input_snapshot_id":"a61d8f43893aa05fbd7b6a251c8ae67a597f52b5467f00de349f4a9575a25a5b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-25T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-24T18:40:51.871Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-24T18:40:51.871Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"839ab6cf99de14f25ddd08735668cf79327d99b2ec6f700bb685d7bb6644b2dd","game_id":"2026_03_ATL_GB","home_team":"GB","home_win_probability":0.699087,"input_snapshot_id":"a61d8f43893aa05fbd7b6a251c8ae67a597f52b5467f00de349f4a9575a25a5b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-25T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-24T18:38:57.006Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-24T18:40:51.871Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"94d4ddb70ecf8d867d9c556481cad28faaf08e098ac9c5a5b0dc61c4e2ac015c","game_id":"2026_03_ATL_GB","home_team":"GB","home_win_probability":0.698112,"input_snapshot_id":"a61d8f43893aa05fbd7b6a251c8ae67a597f52b5467f00de349f4a9575a25a5b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-25T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-24T18:38:57.006Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-24T18:40:51.871Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e80aa9bf87eec7f497948ca2c8beaf742f9c0ee50fdde2be172df45286f8766a","game_id":"2026_03_ATL_GB","home_team":"GB","home_win_probability":0.666,"input_snapshot_id":"a61d8f43893aa05fbd7b6a251c8ae67a597f52b5467f00de349f4a9575a25a5b","kickoff_at":"2026-09-25T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-24T18:38:57.006Z","source_commit":"4e9d4b21c30f7da61d4f0c6d10911b2b49241359","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-17T16:25:51.408Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"03bf9aad509be14c9b760fbc7f0b14763a8785a058507079ab3a3e0ccf008916","game_id":"2026_03_ATL_GB","home_team":"GB","home_win_probability":0.73,"input_snapshot_id":"f4881c71911cca9df35cd0d827577bc212c4600e2b6e9fe3d6d0b5176ae50c4d","kickoff_at":"2026-09-25T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give GB 76.42% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 65.62%. I choose 73%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-17T16:22:36.020Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:05.148Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d26bb0a2cc9cd7123054f003e21f76a815f253cb933e68db3f864a0b9e018b8d","game_id":"2026_03_CAR_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.566554,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:05.148Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:05.148Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d39ea855a944f7a841d1cc00f7ff7d1641f3216e7ad163db2ec7984122ca6f09","game_id":"2026_03_CAR_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.485551,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:05.148Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f8eea6d48a1557a6c7c0f1c8fb6942a98c679f199eae6e03e47dd4b1e708cea1","game_id":"2026_03_CAR_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.485927,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:05.148Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"9aa7b79ca925a83e99570812497169179c81297a658196bea1178b046eceb050","game_id":"2026_03_CAR_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.4053,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:50.883Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"153405a64bd090bf860f46dd117f29b1d38c42fc2fbd09b33c99d0f611f29ddf","game_id":"2026_03_CAR_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.49,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give CLE 43.67% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 60.33%. I choose 49%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:07.050Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"104869144be8efb7063726d91eb446a1a0fd373c54cfe7abd8e0cbc6b2053ed0","game_id":"2026_03_CIN_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.548807,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:07.050Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:07.050Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7d132f03a773f81cb65187d59df6f2372746be1088cb470247e7df7b4bf10fcb","game_id":"2026_03_CIN_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.475741,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:07.050Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"062adb5c072fdf4037a23656b9d1de835ef43cec762a7f27d8f7a13e65fd91c8","game_id":"2026_03_CIN_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.476253,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:07.050Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"bad0c184e3667b953701d2b9033b99d6fc516980c4fc7e1653697f123e8e1248","game_id":"2026_03_CIN_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.4037,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:51.229Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"b46afafef3875806c14ac2563beb4a7452bfbb48f5eba6612197f67ca8177cb6","game_id":"2026_03_CIN_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.53,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give PIT 47.50% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 63.06%. I choose 53%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"HOU","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:08.943Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"58723dd5f4e514a1f0cb3dbe3633ad9c7ed0c504a2bc7b58b250158243147cb3","game_id":"2026_03_HOU_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.43224,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:08.943Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"HOU","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:08.943Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"3d9e7ac698e2836dcb541bab661b90ac5f27a59e7e58237b401dcd78ca9f212c","game_id":"2026_03_HOU_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.437463,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"HOU","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:08.943Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7786d5ca6fcbbcc3ec368cc2b792ca9ec6312b8c14e592f76bb78b12d5387331","game_id":"2026_03_HOU_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.43747,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"HOU","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:08.943Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"4ad44641601d13cbc9c27370759bd53741e3fccee008cedaba4c4734d475ec6f","game_id":"2026_03_HOU_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.4427,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"HOU","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:51.572Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"3f05eb6a4f9b9e9c68c1089ca9210e80978cab1572aecb5ebcdfb50764479350","game_id":"2026_03_HOU_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.4,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give IND 40.38% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 38.55%. I choose 40%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"KC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:10.837Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e808f05a3398c9849daad838584ace2ac6f2677bb62d4f5caa28d3223ae6562d","game_id":"2026_03_KC_MIA","home_team":"MIA","home_win_probability":0.425576,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:10.837Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"KC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:10.837Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"946e66524a37653cf95e528742bebd4876b25426f7d3e03a0c37f048aaffe3a8","game_id":"2026_03_KC_MIA","home_team":"MIA","home_win_probability":0.304082,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"KC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:10.837Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"bec1f89e97f65378c036c2dd2d494b4e79c03abf5355782dcc3354dff56ff8ee","game_id":"2026_03_KC_MIA","home_team":"MIA","home_win_probability":0.315238,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"KC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:10.837Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"fddb83a294c1e39c3d3843df8019c022ec44c28bef70ff0bc7a5f6e0ba59e38f","game_id":"2026_03_KC_MIA","home_team":"MIA","home_win_probability":0.2049,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"KC","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:51.909Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"66f7d3619a54dbb7593cdc8b8ff7f8c60c3e6609612870a18630938f732962a9","game_id":"2026_03_KC_MIA","home_team":"MIA","home_win_probability":0.3,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give MIA 22.39% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 45.31%. I choose 30%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:12.734Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"574cc4a12e532061bc9c4eed159159590325f3ccdbfe984c39a0d6553dbb0b54","game_id":"2026_03_LAC_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.81999,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:12.734Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:12.734Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"8c9db1406b1e9d103cf9fc3adc558288f735b6cb274c23025c7d8cdc3385ca5c","game_id":"2026_03_LAC_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.791445,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:12.734Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"43ddfed33cff1c5ba57ab4fcf2fa4d016bb8aac4d0d18ea342bb290b2d782e71","game_id":"2026_03_LAC_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.789845,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAC","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:12.734Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0fd146d74c6d5e4c5d95bf60785b50b913ec60ebb13008a31e4f4071724b3a30","game_id":"2026_03_LAC_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.7597,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAC","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:52.246Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"8f64ee99ca0d83a0f2ecde94e64cf88accbe5f4ae3baed196a51827e719a1f79","game_id":"2026_03_LAC_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.76,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give BUF 74.14% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 78.31%. I choose 76%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NE","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:14.626Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"93709face2200d3366751ef3f4d0973f9659299f8537dfb4284374af81c0d7a2","game_id":"2026_03_NE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.534769,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:14.626Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NE","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:14.626Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f01b57d39adfbb28a340b8905bd8719f9b2b7048470d2308ea99cf46cab384b4","game_id":"2026_03_NE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.533885,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NE","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:14.626Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"bb8c717ac5071419464d666fa9039d2e1c904999d0a432954b2090aeee2d350d","game_id":"2026_03_NE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.533884,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NE","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:14.626Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"eb5dc5a5704c7cf0cd3e2f327ff9766e0c668a91424f7d9b0a66011bd9936028","game_id":"2026_03_NE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.533,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NE","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:52.581Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"2233e240e9d9590363409cfc57fec3f752ff784f58cf97f04e31f221cb67a206","game_id":"2026_03_NE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.56,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give JAX 55.15% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 58.42%. I choose 56%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:16.524Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"a83c8567dfc8281986e448e361ae275fc09bd77ad3eedc55ea9f505fd91928fb","game_id":"2026_03_NYJ_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.788298,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:16.524Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:16.524Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"73d2f444b02c0fc7d22174363c5f6a341371be09b7f533483e40f23826570e9d","game_id":"2026_03_NYJ_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.78138,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:16.524Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7cf915c8451e5e62874e28b3f1051b005d94dbdca9f0d2f86f5f3484ed7d271d","game_id":"2026_03_NYJ_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.781299,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:16.524Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"e8d6ba87de66980366dd99ec253db62848e2fb5a7749dfb7237e0f1acf319a22","game_id":"2026_03_NYJ_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.7743,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:52.917Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"367d8fa3c867ead366ca5b0022695ba2f1cebf9fbdc0e9fb2e6377f0c974a17a","game_id":"2026_03_NYJ_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.78,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give DET 78.49% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 77.68%. I choose 78%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:18.746Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"7b0cb07c0d2bf15d75c4c77a0e7c15897534aa74086cac0c4cf382789052fc97","game_id":"2026_03_SEA_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.240054,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:18.746Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:18.746Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"818b39b405c0edb8f2f4ac85d0347180a92e529776453226bbb6708f04ad885a","game_id":"2026_03_SEA_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.234329,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:18.746Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"0237a0ca0e1c066202d21bf18f683a37df1c37d1e4db375fd0d23783b405c313","game_id":"2026_03_SEA_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.234377,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:18.746Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"eb2ff64e2f95c016e549e0bd50285e26b7b6e1df6da5707bc203b3a9164daade","game_id":"2026_03_SEA_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.2287,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"SEA","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:53.250Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"2f2271bae5c5a6b3c57863361135ad13351ae8a108f12bffc7995599b85d2793","game_id":"2026_03_SEA_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.38,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give WAS 42.09% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 28.45%. I choose 38%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"TEN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:20.642Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d3d8c0a5a2536456abe123f62b1122f4a432fc78511e04cb094c267edd291167","game_id":"2026_03_TEN_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.735684,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:20.642Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"TEN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:20.642Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"bd7bbcda725586a458054859d88b4015a18a9320225829a6605afaf2ea43b042","game_id":"2026_03_TEN_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.668973,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"TEN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:20.642Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"6b32ba1e3a2633c8190dd1ca86abdea71edf2bde31bc844ba50a7013467963f9","game_id":"2026_03_TEN_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.665192,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"TEN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T16:51:20.642Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"9787a6e34c828342e8ab2de40a8d694241bc0ba88aee7a3b84fe14000fd94428","game_id":"2026_03_TEN_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.5947,"input_snapshot_id":"124b3e47c6f848431458576baa25d7585c747f576f15451f01cde9e8bd166767","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T16:47:10.589Z","source_commit":"830f9ccb87602488ac97c74d2e735f0f763ee130","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"TEN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:53.590Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"77efe19126a49e9f3d466292467a4278845c94016c622bc49ab0f5abb3c32154","game_id":"2026_03_TEN_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.73,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give NYG 71.90% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 74.24%. I choose 73%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:06.425Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"484eff4ff412fb129f5ce25df1dba2f0d71fda4d7855b76ae8048f24832a39c2","game_id":"2026_03_ARI_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.810677,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:06.425Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:06.425Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"5d7524edef82f0d8f879f2819cebd4a9e68c17ca81f38dbb37d8d78e16dc265e","game_id":"2026_03_ARI_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.786247,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:06.425Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f808b44f227ea3f42a8519b114d3ba92f5b8d020ef0d9a627c33b090bc5fcc2c","game_id":"2026_03_ARI_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.785138,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:06.425Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d25899e6b3dcb3430a80fff86cb058b315d617c0450f5d1d09926a5e8a1f4160","game_id":"2026_03_ARI_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.7596,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","source_commit":"ff2b88f1c9dfa4bd5ca9da15c1ba141854e1d453","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:53.929Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"1b5400c9eb4f5fb7ad4e51a7d10de0f798f36c5b06ca3f09da3f563dd3220991","game_id":"2026_03_ARI_SF","home_team":"SF","home_win_probability":0.77,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give SF 76.61% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 78.54%. I choose 77%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:08.657Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ea959d9c36ea537ddd06c5ed93ba0d2fa70c0c1fab5c6f20da3d6ac629dc0f0a","game_id":"2026_03_MIN_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.378431,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:08.657Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:08.657Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"be5b1f04d4b6498bbce86dd5440f9546afed63cd4755c411099a4a8262e06168","game_id":"2026_03_MIN_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.410182,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:08.657Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"15a1a119d16867475b9c26881ffc617d7d8b54aeab85ec98946ebcb787e281bc","game_id":"2026_03_MIN_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.410565,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-27T19:46:08.657Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"dd7cb9b4b84b7d6fb951800601b03feb5b90fe6f5929331ad1e1f56d945cd0a0","game_id":"2026_03_MIN_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.4427,"input_snapshot_id":"3904742659732c08b63a636fd4639f537acb168c9ade45dc2326fb85e82ae0b3","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","source_commit":"ff2b88f1c9dfa4bd5ca9da15c1ba141854e1d453","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:54.267Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"9010d06bace98111429d01e94f45d0e939b0e526f12c482156539b582d44dd4d","game_id":"2026_03_MIN_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.55,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:05:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give TB 59.83% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 44.17%. I choose 55%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:07.097Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"6aa7e202da7e6fd074668f22fb043fc5c02e0fa8a60219be5400bfbb34d0ab47","game_id":"2026_03_BAL_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.395168,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:07.097Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:07.097Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"525809ef42a52137e6096ef271eb001e22c0667ca1a811e3a98c2e959c259ba7","game_id":"2026_03_BAL_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.399676,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:07.097Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"9eefee35c4a980f934caef2f293dea6719ac0c8940437e7b5016e32f8c09b0ef","game_id":"2026_03_BAL_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.399684,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:07.097Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"071d0827924bbdc6f43aacad77ad793e008dd6e1c936a7daaf9a2cfe4f6cc46a","game_id":"2026_03_BAL_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.4042,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","source_commit":"ff2b88f1c9dfa4bd5ca9da15c1ba141854e1d453","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:54.604Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"9df1d0b19762f8bf7e423d5a77ac605c7177b88878d604562b07d66caff9edbe","game_id":"2026_03_BAL_DAL","home_team":"DAL","home_win_probability":0.37,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give DAL 39.02% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 31.71%. I choose 37%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:09.006Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"2071dc0a7fcd21303d4326dd50da283348c5eb3d0eff74eb2a2aaab731dcb403","game_id":"2026_03_LV_NO","home_team":"NO","home_win_probability":0.659193,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:09.006Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:09.006Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"f06401cf980f6edc0cc16ac2c9aeb93a7389ed3a30b28cb02f9245f24f082f48","game_id":"2026_03_LV_NO","home_team":"NO","home_win_probability":0.645272,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:09.006Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ad53a138a61bf562b192cbfa9f7fe711a54de12a37bbe96006ff740994d90132","game_id":"2026_03_LV_NO","home_team":"NO","home_win_probability":0.645147,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-27T20:21:09.006Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ac0bd59747ec691f51618c060b5e1936a670f039385aa9d01b817b85a5921142","game_id":"2026_03_LV_NO","home_team":"NO","home_win_probability":0.6311,"input_snapshot_id":"ee44f45146d3bed83b3b69d7ccf7136f21170a5001a2289bc5e71b7e613ab696","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T19:44:36.292Z","source_commit":"ff2b88f1c9dfa4bd5ca9da15c1ba141854e1d453","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LV","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:54.939Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"7126c9edc270d3edafa8cb966e3be45f66cade385b3c85741cdd805869c96dd8","game_id":"2026_03_LV_NO","home_team":"NO","home_win_probability":0.62,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-27T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give NO 59.68% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 66.63%. I choose 62%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAR","captured_at":"2026-09-28T00:06:01.814Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"adb11f5226f2202f9066831e8c41849b06b1f835eff749908e478ca94be0b7c1","game_id":"2026_03_LAR_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.589431,"input_snapshot_id":"eb83642760dc94664d8fe62f8a748d8e7950feabe6ab9886727eabc3a44efff9","kickoff_at":"2026-09-28T00:20:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-28T00:06:01.814Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAR","captured_at":"2026-09-28T00:06:01.814Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"43226b976f77f65beb8fc6f988e0d76314195b11e9e92a15fe38e15eecef0670","game_id":"2026_03_LAR_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.51642,"input_snapshot_id":"eb83642760dc94664d8fe62f8a748d8e7950feabe6ab9886727eabc3a44efff9","kickoff_at":"2026-09-28T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T22:48:22.092Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAR","captured_at":"2026-09-28T00:06:01.814Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"de9d57e78bd38876054c1e315145284393080b23c8a181a2903c20a6d66c8a97","game_id":"2026_03_LAR_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.516066,"input_snapshot_id":"eb83642760dc94664d8fe62f8a748d8e7950feabe6ab9886727eabc3a44efff9","kickoff_at":"2026-09-28T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T22:48:22.092Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAR","captured_at":"2026-09-28T00:06:01.814Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"957dda101b4ee1a36ad7503d8ed23600f73e00c0ca07eb8ce55bec1f42eb1928","game_id":"2026_03_LAR_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.4427,"input_snapshot_id":"eb83642760dc94664d8fe62f8a748d8e7950feabe6ab9886727eabc3a44efff9","kickoff_at":"2026-09-28T00:20:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-27T22:48:22.092Z","source_commit":"c29ca757a04ee7f9b47b615c63f046d0ed2b2c5b","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"LAR","captured_at":"2026-09-20T16:15:55.278Z","entrant":"Toto","entrant_key":"model:toto","entrant_kind":"agent","forecast_id":"4024854be19528d4bbca84e5d78bdf592736c033f05532c1a6bf0a1a65336820","game_id":"2026_03_LAR_DEN","home_team":"DEN","home_win_probability":0.49,"input_snapshot_id":"3187bd5a215c40cf687834cda005947246c572499cdd82ececed23f7243b4e1c","kickoff_at":"2026-09-28T00:20:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","owner":"Kap","rationale":"No published nfelo Week 3 game probability or market price is available. Public nfelo-season-v1 fixed-strength inputs give DEN 44.19% using current base ratings, recorded QB adjustments and game-specific HFA; current live Classic Elo gives 58.50%. I choose 49%, leaning two-thirds toward the nfelo season projection and one-third toward Classic, then rounding to a whole percentage point. This is not an official nfelo game forecast or an independent news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-20T16:13:07.530Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-28T20:50:34.564Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"c1781cf99231e0c2445ff4d0933ec26e83868cee0a0c41c7fdcab1bece7bd873","game_id":"2026_03_PHI_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.540417,"input_snapshot_id":"39bc90e39e663906c0f2e38cfa66df63966b0107b96405f70359c4082e5348cc","kickoff_at":"2026-09-29T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-28T20:50:34.564Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-28T20:50:34.564Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b70b8e88be0397d1b3b084c430c559b583bbd852c9401c1c746a833f6381ab2e","game_id":"2026_03_PHI_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.475036,"input_snapshot_id":"39bc90e39e663906c0f2e38cfa66df63966b0107b96405f70359c4082e5348cc","kickoff_at":"2026-09-29T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-28T20:46:40.124Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-28T20:50:34.564Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"4d607264358ae223ba094f61c844a77f3c9ea052caa01cc34158ec01a10f38c1","game_id":"2026_03_PHI_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.475459,"input_snapshot_id":"39bc90e39e663906c0f2e38cfa66df63966b0107b96405f70359c4082e5348cc","kickoff_at":"2026-09-29T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-28T20:46:40.124Z","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PHI","captured_at":"2026-09-28T20:50:34.564Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"b17c3f87e72170e60c723d928a286d9c96af4ae4a4e7d9d24d87c934051d3cc9","game_id":"2026_03_PHI_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.4105,"input_snapshot_id":"39bc90e39e663906c0f2e38cfa66df63966b0107b96405f70359c4082e5348cc","kickoff_at":"2026-09-29T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-28T20:46:40.124Z","source_commit":"cd0641cafd998a082927eda6e43903029f5e29f6","week":3,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-10-01T19:50:27.664Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"cb0fc82b3cd42d04a5a25dc290b90af8da600c899d7f0518541c928105b92b69","game_id":"2026_04_PIT_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.487782,"input_snapshot_id":"cf6bec0daecb873dcbe8cbe629c20ef63f506373c40eba3b346d656c66261a8e","kickoff_at":"2026-10-02T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-10-01T19:50:27.664Z","week":4,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-10-01T19:50:27.664Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"693c45679b6421c1c682beb9695df0b5b7f7e42584a62270c05997f11ffe9041","game_id":"2026_04_PIT_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.44617,"input_snapshot_id":"cf6bec0daecb873dcbe8cbe629c20ef63f506373c40eba3b346d656c66261a8e","kickoff_at":"2026-10-02T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-10-01T19:47:50.955Z","week":4,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-10-01T19:50:27.664Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","entrant_key":"model:ddpr-nfl-linear","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ed18c819ea74de94d4e86918030d96b3b2af5267387910832a4b32da50d432e1","game_id":"2026_04_PIT_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.446541,"input_snapshot_id":"cf6bec0daecb873dcbe8cbe629c20ef63f506373c40eba3b346d656c66261a8e","kickoff_at":"2026-10-02T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-10-01T19:47:50.955Z","week":4,"locked":true},{"away_team":"PIT","captured_at":"2026-10-01T19:50:27.664Z","entrant":"nfelo","entrant_key":"model:nfelo","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"ea781b66f7373b683c09ea350b4603f1c43afa7f4d61de29cad475d31b1df85e","game_id":"2026_04_PIT_CLE","home_team":"CLE","home_win_probability":0.4053,"input_snapshot_id":"cf6bec0daecb873dcbe8cbe629c20ef63f506373c40eba3b346d656c66261a8e","kickoff_at":"2026-10-02T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-10-01T19:47:50.955Z","source_commit":"9fd94033ad8e4bd67bd325d563f0dfe4cb8ae2ff","week":4,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-10-03T04:10:26.245Z","entrant":"538 Classic Elo","entrant_key":"model:538-classic","entrant_kind":"model","forecast_id":"d6bc9057cf822b1242cac9aea98ac3ec6140ff92f49ba134f10d98e5acce8a07","game_id":"2026_04_IND_WAS","home_team":"WAS","home_win_probability":0.507969,"input_snapshot_id":"ec43be09317810b555d4faf52cd25a706f1da5400223703bd34fa11c60503f97","kickoff_at":"2026-10-04T13:30:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-10-03T04:10:26.245Z","week":4,"locked":true},{"away_team":"IND","captured_at":"2026-10-03T04:10:26.245Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"entrant":"DDPR NFL (logit 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