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A moderate 59% reflects the disagreement without adding home advantage.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":true},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:24.067Z","forecast_id":"eecb6a2927c1ed9a859ea1cddae5f583c8d747f8f949247c6e1c1a97b2744204","game_id":"2026_01_ATL_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.642434,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:24.067Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:24.067Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"01aa594b0118d99b81e8f74c51082ccce7314c37a7539e28bcbb82282817e6ce","game_id":"2026_01_ATL_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.67975,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:24.067Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"e9ce1c2469b2aaf364e52e9dcf747466c850b7f4adaf4b636271986559352908","game_id":"2026_01_ATL_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.678667,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:24.067Z","forecast_id":"c4b7f980a5401fa2a9fb76b347007dbbfbe3b98fb7cf817305c8d556c85f4d17","game_id":"2026_01_ATL_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.7149,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ATL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:24.257Z","forecast_id":"1a53ca0c9bde53a02bf9f60423bf370cf9b8b72b88567f141cc3333894c533da","game_id":"2026_01_ATL_PIT","home_team":"PIT","home_win_probability":0.68,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 69.82% for Pittsburgh; Classic remains 64.24%. I raise P(home) from 63% to 68%, leaning toward the fresh nfelo input while retaining uncertainty. The republished market is almost identical to nfelo and is not an independent vote.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","forecast_id":"1342ac0bdc56e1d971e441b2df46ce42834bab1a3de07725aebab6183ad31d5a","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.484375,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"3325d3d5dd6f1f01f171101a56fbc728591ee00a2e0ffe249b47182dcc8d3cf1","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.447554,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"7bb506cdfb5d14cb5afd7da48b9243b1403f906d85a368fcf4da33ad51e7d807","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.447837,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:26.265Z","forecast_id":"5379102f95116ee1aac428ed64f5a32ec602208f557f926080e17bfd7743f0f6","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.4113,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:24.836Z","forecast_id":"81213729cc1bc463a72a97efc33caea90863d226e0e4d1efefcd3db801dca8fb","game_id":"2026_01_BAL_IND","home_team":"IND","home_win_probability":0.42,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives Indianapolis 41.13%, versus Classic 48.44% and the republished market 36.89%. I retain 42% despite changed inputs: the current model remains the anchor, with opposing signals warranting caution rather than a stronger underdog call.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","forecast_id":"c54ae1fb347f0d3dacae94ecaae7c3677c18584b7664dbb388b714c66ec6221e","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.593752,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"5fe7a4fbfb051fafed3a8c45ffb06f6d92c9f4531bd2a567119acd53c538da5e","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.523497,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"7c6dc185be15fa50b59c130e280750375d85b67e7736327aaa6571c190634d8d","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.523026,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:28.463Z","forecast_id":"ecefba7ae0b5e63acd79f10ea4d0a11554fcec8b0d0c47ba1ba0c31ae09713bd","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.4523,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"BUF","captured_at":"2026-09-09T21:45:53.560Z","forecast_id":"c655c943e55e41be92bfbd9b9e448e71c2817cfa76fe47c07879be1cdce2aa09","game_id":"2026_01_BUF_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.47,"input_snapshot_id":"2c53752b299084ffc0cde200ca130c6dbbb0c1fb688042de88cbb50adcf5f681","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"nfelo and market are about 44.3% for Houston, while Classic gives 59.38%. That large disagreement warrants caution; 47% retains the current-feed underdog direction while acknowledging rating uncertainty.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CHI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:31.250Z","forecast_id":"8759aef1951015f54fd49292ff18cc0e51b431a37df918ed5f1936f8c4f420f9","game_id":"2026_01_CHI_CAR","home_team":"CAR","home_win_probability":0.452296,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:31.250Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CHI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:31.250Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"dd492374727c705a2a5fb609e8fc44051f2b60aee0bd2a0e481330ad9ef93184","game_id":"2026_01_CHI_CAR","home_team":"CAR","home_win_probability":0.419295,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CHI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:31.250Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"e45955ae9b1644f49b275831c59d36aff8de0119fc0cb2d809fb56ac63d01851","game_id":"2026_01_CHI_CAR","home_team":"CAR","home_win_probability":0.419648,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CHI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:31.250Z","forecast_id":"ce32a91203866b97d39a060b70336a26d616c12ef2ddf19e504b04eab01ddabf","game_id":"2026_01_CHI_CAR","home_team":"CAR","home_win_probability":0.387,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CHI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:25.407Z","forecast_id":"7d38c56f216c11f359d2a13673ea6ec67e2223f716ad7159a1b473479c9e1f26","game_id":"2026_01_CHI_CAR","home_team":"CAR","home_win_probability":0.4,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo is now 38.70% for Carolina, the same as its republished market; Classic is 45.23%. I lower P(home) from 42% to 40%, allowing a small pull toward the less pessimistic rating without treating dependent inputs as separate evidence.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","forecast_id":"c6c081abbfe6897b61b7eb80e3fddce7b3545c1f060fa4fa96add053d4c4f7a0","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.769761,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"96b28132a9c51ca58057c21588f4a6338045ecd4c8b441b7996d4007bb03f96f","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.778243,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"f30a0da50a23b35c4ec60fd101ba004c74e9e062964c37f77792f09a873c480d","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.778131,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:33.479Z","forecast_id":"9fd27fc580485f48e7e20d1467066917e766192f3748bedf0039a5f6949ff8e4","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.7865,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:25.973Z","forecast_id":"002a186fcea29fe0c94eae6f8332bb27b48710132036d28bc794dc5897433c79","game_id":"2026_01_CLE_JAX","home_team":"JAX","home_win_probability":0.77,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 78.65% for Jacksonville and Classic is 76.98%. I raise P(home) from 75% to 77%, retaining modest uncertainty rather than increasing confidence because the republished market equals nfelo.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:35.697Z","forecast_id":"2d8ba8f021b2c9a2f8908632b151b5e5c974a7acdf7c10424607e176d3387b99","game_id":"2026_01_NO_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.741372,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:35.697Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:35.697Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"a3b0cab432ec00a317afb0cad46459f5c6ebb973fe165ec30f2668895bfc94a2","game_id":"2026_01_NO_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.743341,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:35.697Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"d496dea14e5f1744c01d8930d9008838cdacbc3393407039052d7c5e647e788e","game_id":"2026_01_NO_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.743336,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:35.697Z","forecast_id":"858a5842957c3956db8871c431338c53b72ce19f7ecf521910e382bc31cbd7c7","game_id":"2026_01_NO_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.7453,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NO","captured_at":"2026-09-09T21:45:59.109Z","forecast_id":"92de8ead6b1ad3b3a24cc91758bb40af6a869aee5340d6b402164071a89c8ef8","game_id":"2026_01_NO_DET","home_team":"DET","home_win_probability":0.74,"input_snapshot_id":"2c53752b299084ffc0cde200ca130c6dbbb0c1fb688042de88cbb50adcf5f681","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"nfelo and market give Detroit 74.53%, Classic 74.14%. I use 74% with no unsupported news adjustment.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:37.930Z","forecast_id":"4b7064cf3abdb90543a4595aac887a61224ae9ea274e3f284ff050ba940170e1","game_id":"2026_01_NYJ_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.58586,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:37.930Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:37.930Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"15cc60f77969c626ee87f4c0e58864225c2526bfea1cd1bff91c52240f7dfb23","game_id":"2026_01_NYJ_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.57164,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:37.930Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"5670181f5ddebcbbb406394986d20d8412354ec795d0493fb7dd42dd786b88be","game_id":"2026_01_NYJ_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.57158,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:37.930Z","forecast_id":"05cd4cdb8a9852f49ec9e58b0315a25157d3f3b144f0cfd3f1bc816d4b827e16","game_id":"2026_01_NYJ_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.5573,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"NYJ","captured_at":"2026-09-09T21:46:00.965Z","forecast_id":"82a47021a1a292d720b211938ff9db5f12d52f4fbf7650403f54fd1ec4cbdc59","game_id":"2026_01_NYJ_TEN","home_team":"TEN","home_win_probability":0.56,"input_snapshot_id":"2c53752b299084ffc0cde200ca130c6dbbb0c1fb688042de88cbb50adcf5f681","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Tennessee is a modest favorite: nfelo and market 55.73%, Classic 58.59%. I stay near the current-feed 56% rather than treating the ratings as extra independent votes.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"TB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:40.115Z","forecast_id":"0a1126d393927e21a508f0f780f58fe7c32963c7172da66c2756f3e176cc5910","game_id":"2026_01_TB_CIN","home_team":"CIN","home_win_probability":0.592752,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:40.115Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"TB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:40.115Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"922ed79bc4f3e3205a7696088104fb3a1f11b7aab87460a3d36db9e963d66435","game_id":"2026_01_TB_CIN","home_team":"CIN","home_win_probability":0.6121,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"TB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:40.115Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"5f1a6542cfac959bf747298a6c00e516989a1a7161a650f00960c83b6e570507","game_id":"2026_01_TB_CIN","home_team":"CIN","home_win_probability":0.611926,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"TB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:40.115Z","forecast_id":"fe0c96722338ce005893ce04fbdd6a156ef442edf94b36761dfa8d894ee6d465","game_id":"2026_01_TB_CIN","home_team":"CIN","home_win_probability":0.6311,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"TB","captured_at":"2026-09-09T21:46:02.833Z","forecast_id":"9d7c7c1a5c4aa4da72914325b82a42df12918bee435d32581896ab32490256d1","game_id":"2026_01_TB_CIN","home_team":"CIN","home_win_probability":0.62,"input_snapshot_id":"2c53752b299084ffc0cde200ca130c6dbbb0c1fb688042de88cbb50adcf5f681","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T17:00:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"nfelo and market give Cincinnati 63.11%; Classic is lower at 59.28%. A small downward adjustment to 62% captures that uncertainty.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-09T21:17:00.996Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:42.301Z","forecast_id":"2d32cbfbbd5382dba076e770064aa3d3f3e7fc9a216260294a890b235cfc67a3","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.759907,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:42.301Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:42.301Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"3abc1d13a0a307de51e40020dfa97b9a50556cb4c975547c54cf255bebf86951","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.78662,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:42.301Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"ed6e8bc983afae34c893586ef86c429b8592b782656243821ac625276cfdcefb","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.785504,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:42.301Z","forecast_id":"088532c11a78905e5f2efd77de6eac0bc56f6ed7be55c373cc47863bb894e2a2","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.8111,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"ARI","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:26.535Z","forecast_id":"e814b42176e4e3349b908fe40e82d380b8a67e5961f261f4f4378ff8683bb833","game_id":"2026_01_ARI_LAC","home_team":"LAC","home_win_probability":0.79,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives the Chargers 81.11%, versus Classic 75.99%. I raise P(home) from 77% to 79%, below the more confident current feed. No independent injury or news adjustment is claimed.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:44.517Z","forecast_id":"289a297ba41daed56dcc2b5f9d5d5b3a704cdd6f921b1e879fdb12c7807a3777","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.623835,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:44.517Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:44.517Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"43e5bcb8c7bc7ce43e87a70d7b7abd48aac438eb93d6af467e9112d5c29300fb","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.590984,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:44.517Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"b9d780f657c4855c47944726d4041dc40ebb9861e46a75de16d03db8770b132a","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.590567,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:44.517Z","forecast_id":"7511191a223a6437aed7c111b33b5a40fa0864f25adcd750b042132aa8cc6148","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.5573,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"GB","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:27.100Z","forecast_id":"3b1d1e6d7aa26a5b05563af2777a59403d6f9208d1d7d8fa6a832a8ca12db8d0","game_id":"2026_01_GB_MIN","home_team":"MIN","home_win_probability":0.58,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo is now 55.73% for Minnesota, while Classic remains 62.38%. I reduce P(home) from 59% to 58%, leaning toward current nfelo but acknowledging the rating disagreement. The republished market equals nfelo, not an additional independent signal.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:46.706Z","forecast_id":"01d31144dc1f777b98b195c2a171152b9a3dabf502b1fd536c2b2eda438ebc43","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.435019,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:46.706Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:46.706Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"efceb288292db8c32ce5d9cfcbe4deab7f1711c386ea6f6100249bdd7e1fbf41","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.524797,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:46.706Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"e9cf622f0a9622154f19d2cc7a2bf9806c9ba54b2bd1fb87daf0a40bee633ad7","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.52401,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:46.706Z","forecast_id":"b57074790c9b4fbb369d996ffd29b8045b75b3eb23eb4afdb825fbbd7ae8d478","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.613,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIA","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:27.676Z","forecast_id":"340f63b78a4b7f2969d7c87df4af737669135e3f3aee6f1678dee6ba719e497e","game_id":"2026_01_MIA_LV","home_team":"LV","home_win_probability":0.57,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Upstream OAK is normalized to canonical LV. Published nfelo gives Las Vegas 61.30%, down from 62.44%; Classic gives only 43.50%. I reduce P(home) from 58% to 57%, retaining the current-feed favorite while moderating this substantial directional disagreement.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:48.892Z","forecast_id":"9db92e00939bcf251ca80e7fbc23a9e0e219b5ffcfe4e88e92901dcbde362d1e","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.71495,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:48.892Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:48.892Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"2daf9e93da3031308aae49b4ad724e380ba2568e04fdf086727f364de0d37acd","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.707137,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:48.892Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"ff1aad48f285cdd0bd223b7f2152bb35ee796c82df3c57a579b2e24b21f7f0dc","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.707075,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:48.892Z","forecast_id":"e068acac14c738327a4c0214db0874fa0012343c81bf72d4e6577d3e9b8afc42","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.6992,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"WAS","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:28.240Z","forecast_id":"950e8b63e7771bd2081c97c8e9da6f4845b25989d20fd01db026589362973567","game_id":"2026_01_WAS_PHI","home_team":"PHI","home_win_probability":0.7,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-13T20:25:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 69.92% for Philadelphia; Classic is 71.50%. I raise P(home) from 65% to 70%, close to current nfelo. Agreement with its identical republished market does not establish independent evidence or an edge.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:51.078Z","forecast_id":"960ea35825ce87a68b59debeb3b9b564f335dd153077b71ac93091be837b6a8d","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.543708,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:51.078Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:51.078Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"5c3b12bf7e6f0f316a7c930c6248647f3b3d39bf2a8cebb83754104175605241","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.464477,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:51.078Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"b06681dfe72682d845760ddc2db4f5a3187f9e91b5d7fb8ca3e0a1d47078d909","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.465354,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:51.078Z","forecast_id":"1d8b5780bdf3d139afbc6fea76f4321686c459fc54424bfda16b0dbe637a4c7a","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.387,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DAL","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:28.815Z","forecast_id":"23c659aa5af032e214a8e5f03d26aab799ec787c4941945c307489d9707253b3","game_id":"2026_01_DAL_NYG","home_team":"NYG","home_win_probability":0.42,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-14T00:20:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo now gives the Giants 38.70%, versus Classic 54.37%. I lower P(home) from 46% to 42%, following the changed current feed while retaining a substantial uncertainty allowance for the opposite Classic favorite.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:53.313Z","forecast_id":"7230c044cf061d86d15bb8211c7c3375f81118beffa73f01d0aa9db9bf3599e2","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.426854,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:53.313Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:53.313Z","ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"a1558256362f45e136f362b39156135ba93e0cc790625cd7a10e9811fa4422ec","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.51109,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl","model_name":"DDPR NFL (logit mean)","model_version":"logit-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:53.313Z","displayed":false,"ensemble_of":["nfelo","538-classic"],"forecast_id":"08d6081563b9cd82cf2f382dcf539f83d1d73d13c70c2aa82e6db0863a728c42","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.510777,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"ddpr-nfl-linear","model_name":"DDPR NFL (linear mean)","model_version":"linear-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:53.313Z","forecast_id":"f40bd980a978e02628e4f064257ef2caf5ccb628afe594face4a2685b471a8fb","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.5947,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"nfelo","model_name":"nfelo","model_version":"4.3.1","season":2026,"source":"Published nfelo probability","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:25:50.964Z","source_commit":"0386d83b308372d6218e2f3a95f743ae6fdaedae","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DEN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:29.390Z","forecast_id":"f44b42b77ea4099805f902ab9ad16d0cd1de99ccd612f71bd14ee5d7607e961c","game_id":"2026_01_DEN_KC","home_team":"KC","home_win_probability":0.55,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-15T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"Published nfelo has risen to 59.47% for Kansas City, while Classic remains 42.69%. I raise P(home) from 52% to 55%; this stays between the conflicting views and nearer current nfelo without asserting a cause for their disagreement.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":1,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:55.572Z","forecast_id":"3ed4652c259d8f350ba77d861f362c85e73013d350e19e714408caab2ce09a4c","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.660532,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:55.572Z","week":2,"locked":false},{"away_team":"DET","captured_at":"2026-09-12T16:25:29.958Z","forecast_id":"4b507c7d9b25abf71639196f02d4ce4240244068968d0349a2dca80f2db5eb2c","game_id":"2026_02_DET_BUF","home_team":"BUF","home_win_probability":0.61,"input_snapshot_id":"a2b39140ba473dbbf66581aff1ff949582e477a0ba724e08516f0913789c6da8","kickoff_at":"2026-09-18T00:15:00Z","model_id":"toto","model_name":"Toto","model_version":"toto-codex-data-only-v1 (underlying model identifier not exposed)","rationale":"No published nfelo game probability or market price is available for this September 17 game. Public nfelo-season-v1 inputs give Buffalo 59.11%: base-rating difference plus existing QB adjustments and 44.425 HFA Elo yields 64.296 Elo, converted with z=401.62. Classic gives 66.05%. I choose 61%, nearer the fixed-strength nfelo season projection and modestly tempered because both teams still have Week 1 games to play; this is not an official nfelo game forecast.","season":2026,"source":"ChatGPT/Codex authored forecast; imported before kickoff","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T16:23:35.730Z","week":2,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CAR","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:56.128Z","forecast_id":"720fbe35df3514fb507c94007996e2d57df919c87f380b60676ee886d552d5db","game_id":"2026_02_CAR_ATL","home_team":"ATL","home_win_probability":0.649312,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:56.128Z","week":2,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CIN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:56.687Z","forecast_id":"95b6590d8447c7aa31e37d6c2072a8cf2351582401d8d8ebe72defdff8871cce","game_id":"2026_02_CIN_HOU","home_team":"HOU","home_win_probability":0.751558,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:56.687Z","week":2,"locked":false},{"away_team":"CLE","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:57.254Z","forecast_id":"bf95c2cd644f239fd18b47adda305439d38cce3b649c98d39f99bc7a3c6fa62e","game_id":"2026_02_CLE_TB","home_team":"TB","home_win_probability":0.667542,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season 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games","source_capture_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:57.811Z","week":2,"locked":false},{"away_team":"MIN","captured_at":"2026-09-12T17:30:58.354Z","forecast_id":"d05febb15ee761f1d2d6745bb5ed5ce0251e9fc6c0eabcd7ac299bd0bfc29ccb","game_id":"2026_02_MIN_CHI","home_team":"CHI","home_win_probability":0.563468,"input_snapshot_id":"cac8d558a9ead6f994651e7c35a11171b47a5873ac33ec78e8abcfa9f5aa5f0e","kickoff_at":"2026-09-20T17:00:00Z","model_id":"538-classic","model_name":"538 Classic Elo","model_version":"classic-1.0.0-live","season":2026,"source":"538 preseason seed + completed canonical current-season 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